One percent will die

One percent will die in our countries and the economy will sink by a few percents.

China has stopped the epidemic, but we are not Asia. Europe and the United States will follow closer to Bergamo, where 1% of the city’s population has died and 1% will die. Bergamo is first to reach a high infection rate due to the excellent play of the local football team.

The Dr. Fauci's prediction of 100 to 200 thousand deaths in the US looks overly optimistic. Presumably, at death rates of 0.1%, the presidents will impose strict Beijing style quarantines (Wuhan quarantine was more rigorous) and after a couple of months the epidemic will die out, but with infection rate close to half. Hospitals will fail. Death will take 20% of those who already had to go in a few years for health reasons. Young people have little ACE2 enzyme, to which the spices of the crown attach, so our grandchildren will force us out of the world for good.

After the epidemic, social distancing will be a norm, the US will print dollars, fight with unemployment, and remake healthcare, China will become self-sufficient, Russia will become poor due to cheap oil, and Ukraine will face a third Maidan.